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Jenkins Sugar Group Cocoa Report

 

May 17, 2012 – May 30, 2012

July

$2070

Down $222

Sept

$2081

Down $223

 

 

 

 

Metrics:

 

Over the course of the past two weeks, cocoa outpaced the impressive drop in the CRB of 4.8% - New York lost 9.7% and London lost 5.9%. Dollar strength likely contributed to New York’s losses as the dollar index gained nearly 2% while the pound dropped 2.5%.



Cocoa Market:

  

 

Spain.

Greece.

Sell.

Repeat.

 

Wake us up when silly season begins.

 

Misc.

 

·         Grindings:

 

o   Over the past several reports, we have shown production over the past 30 years from a variety of origins. Some have shown persistent growth (Ghana); some have been a bit irregular (Brazil); some have shown an increase in the past few years (Ecuador); some have put fear in our thoughts with wobbly production, save for the past 2 La Nina related years (Cote d’Ivoire); some have seemingly hit a ceiling (Indonesia); and others have taken the exit ramp (Malaysia).

 

o   Below we show production’s significant other, grindings. It’s impressive how production has been able to keep up with demand over this time span – from 1.5 mm tons to over 4.0mm. A key point of tension continues to exist over the market’s ability to solve for additional quantities in the future, especially should current low prices continue. Consumption dynamics really changed in 2008, with the recession that dented chocolate consumption. Grindings over the past few years have been led by powder demand, given weak chocolate sales and strong marketing efforts by companies promoting powder based goods.

 

 

 

 

 

·         ICE cocoa & CRB:

 

 

·         Misc.:

 

o   Charles Taylor, former President of Liberia, was sentenced by The Hague to a 50 year prison sentence for his role in aiding war crimes in Sierra Leone.

 

o   ICCO adjusted their 2011/12 deficit to 43,000 tons from 71,000 tons, roughly in line with most other estimates.

 

o   One scholar’s take on the role of China in Africa:

 

§  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18143515

 

 

o   It’s been a slow news couple of weeks, so we offer the following article – at least these people are flying while cocoa prices are crashing:

 

§  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18066260

 

 

 

 

 

 

Best Regards,

 

 

Ken Lorenze

Jenkins Sugar Group

142 Old Ridgefield Road

Suite 205

Wilton, Ct 06897

Office: (203) –563-6100

Cell: (203)-722-4690

www.jenkinssugar.com

 

This report has been compiled for general informational purposes only.  While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, Jenkins Sugar Group, Inc. assumes no responsibility for errors and omissions.

 

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