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Morning Report 4/16/15

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Morning Sugar Report

Thursday April 16, 2015

 

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JSG Macro Byte

In the United States, housing starts were below expectations at 926k for March, up from a revised 908k the month prior. Housing permits also came in below expectations at 1.039 million, down from a revised annual rate of 1.102 million in February. Jobless claims were higher than expected at 294k for the April 11 week, up from a revised 282k the week prior. The Philadelphia Fed Survey will be released at 10:00EDT. The EIA Natural Gas Report will be released at 10:30EDT. Both the Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply will be released at 16:30EDT. The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President will give a speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy at 13:00EDT. Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President, Loretta Mester, will give a speech on the economy and monetary policy at 13:10EDT.

According to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the booming growth in U.S. oil supplies will end in 2015 as a result of a cutback in the number of drilling rigs. The organization said U.S. oil supplies will grow to about 13.65 million barrels a day in the second quarter of 2015 and then level off.

Australia’s jobless rate unexpectedly fell in March, spurring a jump in the nation’s currency on optimism the central bank’s effort to shore up the economy with low interest rates is paying off. Unemployment dropped to 6.10% from a revised 6.20% in February, with the number of people employed rising by 37,700.

Flowchart: Process: JSG Macro Byte In the United States, housing starts were below expectations at 926k for March, up from a revised 908k the month prior. Housing permits also came in below expectations at 1.039 million, down from a revised annual rate of 1.102 million in February. Jobless claims were higher than expected at 294k for the April 11 week, up from a revised 282k the week prior. The Philadelphia Fed Survey will be released at 10:00EDT. The EIA Natural Gas Report will be released at 10:30EDT. Both the Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply will be released at 16:30EDT. The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President will give a speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy at 13:00EDT. Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President, Loretta Mester, will give a speech on the economy and monetary policy at 13:10EDT. According to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the booming growth in U.S. oil supplies will end in 2015 as a result of a cutback in the number of drilling rigs. The organization said U.S. oil supplies will grow to about 13.65 million barrels a day in the second quarter of 2015 and then level off. Australia’s jobless rate unexpectedly fell in March, spurring a jump in the nation’s currency on optimism the central bank’s effort to shore up the economy with low interest rates is paying off. Unemployment dropped to 6.10% from a revised 6.20% in February, with the number of people employed rising by 37,700.

World sugar futures have worked a bit higher to start the day again in good volume. May has traded from 12.93 up to 13.20 and last 19 higher at 13.19.  July is last 15 higher at 13.07, trading from 12.84 up to 13.09 this point. More than 50,000 lots have traded between May & July thus far. On spread, the May/July has traded from eight to 13 points premium and last at 12 over. The July/October has traded from 45 to 44under and last at 45 points discount.

Chart Points: July 2015 #11

  • 10-day MA: 12.81
  • 20-day MA: 12.68
  • 40-day MA: 13.21
  • 50-day MA: 13.56
  • 100-day MA: 14.64
  • 200-day MA: 16.16
  • MAY RSI (14): 52.1166

Text Box: Chart Points: July 2015 #11 • 10-day MA: 12.81 • 20-day MA: 12.68 • 40-day MA: 13.21 • 50-day MA: 13.56 • 100-day MA: 14.64 • 200-day MA: 16.16 • MAY RSI (14): 52.1166

In London,August is now $3.60 higher at $366.60, with just over 1,700 lots of volume thus far.  On spread, the August/October is last at $0.20 discount, up $1.40 on the day. The August/July white premium, is now last at $79.50, unchanged on the day. At the May #5 expiry, deliverers were Alvean (372 lots Guatemala, 989 Thai); Bunge (240 Guatemala, 188 Thai); Itochu (234 Thai), Louis Dreyfus (280 lots Guatemala); Sucden (1,200 Guatemala); and Tereos (172 Brazil). ED&F Man was the receiver of 3,675 lots – 2,092 Guats, 1,411 Thais and 172 Brazils.

Sugar #11 OI update:

K: down 44,663 to 249,749

N: up 28,177 to 342,312

V: up 846 to 143,735

TOTAL OI:  903,548 down 13,660

Currency Check

  • BRL: 3.0362 (-0.27%)
  • INR: 62.3037 (+0.11%)
  • MXN: 15.2493 (+0.18%)
  • EURO: 1.0698 (+0.14%)
  • DXY: 98.157 (-0.17%)
  • %)

Text Box: Currency Check • BRL: 3.0362 (-0.27%) • INR: 62.3037 (+0.11%) • MXN: 15.2493 (+0.18%) • EURO: 1.0698 (+0.14%) • DXY: 98.157 (-0.17%) • %)

Cash-wise, According to Williams SA the Brazilian vessel line-up of raw sugar waiting to load is now 784,659 tonnes of sugar, which is lower on the week. This compares with 634,800 tonnes last week and 445,632 tonnes last year. During the week, approximately 200,000 tonnes of raw sugar sailed.

Here are the new nominations:

VENEZUELA

10,000

SANTOS

COPERSUCAR

BUNGE

BANGLADESH

52,000

SANTOS

COPER/RUMO

MAN

ALGERIA

47,400

SANTOS

COPERSUCAR

NOLIS

CHINA

39,859

PARANAGUA

PASA

AGROCORP

TOTAL:

149,259

 

Indian sugar production has now totaled 26.4 million tonnes through April 15th, up 13.8% from 23.2 million tonnes a year earlier.  290 mills are still crushing cane.  According to the Indian Sugar Mills Association stocks may total more than 9.0 million tonnes through September 30th.

 

Meanwhile the cane output forecast for Thailand has been elevated to over 104.0 million tonnes, from an early forecast of 102.8 million tonnes.  Production has totaled 11.04 million tonnes to date, from 103.86 million tonnes of cane, close to if not new records for the country.

Mexican production for the week ended April 11th totaled 259,592 tonnes, 14,127 tonnes lower

than the same week last year. Year-to-date, 4.439 million tonnes of sugar has been produced

from 39.785 million tonnes of cane. This compares with 4.460 million tonnes of sugar made from 40.554 million tonnes of cane last year. While still lagging last year marginally, production has essentially recovered from the trough, which reached its nadir on 3/21.

 

Jeff Dobrydney

JSG Commodities

203.853.3000

www.jsgcom.com

This report has been compiled for general informational purposes only.  While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, Jenkins Sugar Group, Inc. assumes no responsibility for errors and omissions.

 

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