MORNING SUGAR REPORT

Thursday May 21, 2020

WORLD SUGAR #11

World sugar futures have maintained this week’s steadiness to this point in average volume. July is last three higher at 11.22, while October is last five higher at 11.21. More than 30,000 lots have traded between July and October to this point. On spread, the July/October has traded from five to one over and last at one point premium. The October/March has traded from 61 to 64 under and last at 63 points discount.
SUGAR #11 OPEN INTEREST:
 N0: 314,936 -8,653  V0: 245,060 +8,750  H1: 168,123 +5,950

TOTAL: 980,532 +9,348
JSG Spec Live Call: +24,500 LONG
SUGAR #11 OPTION WATCH

ATM VOLS: n 11.25 straddle 81-85 vol 35.60 -.80% q 11.25 straddle 112-116 vol 32.80 -.35% v 11.25 straddle 159-162 vol 31.77 -.20% h 11.75 straddle 231-237 vol 29.00 -.10% TRADES OF NOTE: 500 V 10.00 PUTS TRADE 31 PAPER BUYS 1,000 V 12/14 CS VS 11.24 @ 36
LONDON #5
In London, August is last $2.00 higher at $368.30 trading from $368.00 to $370.70 to this point. On spread the August/October is last $1.10 lower at $20.50 premium. The August/July white premium is last at $121.00, up $1.00 on the day.

MACRO BYTE
President Donald Trump escalated his rhetoric against China, suggesting that the country’s leader, Xi Jinping, is behind a “disinformation and propaganda attack on the United States and Europe.” While Trump has often blamed China for failing to prevent a pandemic, he has been careful to maintain that his relationship with Xi remains strong.
Workers in the United States filed another 2.40 million unemployment claims last week, continuing a wave of historically high filings since the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic began. The Labor Department report showed weekly claims continued to decline since a peak of nearly 7.0 million at the end of March, but remained at high levels.
















GLOBAL FUNDAMENTALS
Cash-wise: According to Williams SA the Brazilian vessel line-up of raw sugar waiting to load is now 3.251 million tonnes of sugar, which higher on the week, as new nominations have quickly followed the May delivery, and the highest it has been at this time in more than a decade. There are several vessels that will present in Santos that already will wait a month before loading. This compares with 2.682 million tonnes last week and 694,135 tonnes last year. Approximately 175,000 tonnes of sugar shipped on the week. In Maceio, there are now three vessels loading a total of 99,803 tonnes destined for the US. Also please note, there are a total of 45 vessels waiting to load in Santos and currently 33 have not verified their destination according to the Williams report. Please see our attached chart.

Here are the new named nominations:
NIGERIA 42,130 SANTOS COPERSUCAR NOM UK
YEMEN 47,250 SANTOS COPERSUCAR MIDSTAR
CHINA 60,000 SANTOS COPERSUCAR MAN
NIGERIA 52,800 SANTOS RUMO STAR
CHINA 60,000 SANTOS RUMO COFCO
YEMEN 47,250 SANTOS TIPLAM MIDSTAR
IRAN 66,700 SANTOS RUMO HOLBUD
IRAQ 33,000 PARANAGUA PASA ALVEAN
IRAN 63,000 PARANAGUA PASA CASILLO
TAIWAN 35,000 PARANAGUA PASA TBC
CANADA 34,390 PARANAGUA PASA MAN
TOTAL: 541,520







According to the Thailand Meteorological Department (“TMD”), the weighted average rainfall in major sugarcane growing regions of Thailand from 1st May 2020 to 17th May 2020 was 44 mm, -51 mm below the historical average rainfall for the same period, which is 95 mm. Given the sub optimal weather to date, Tropical research is revising our estimate of the Thailand sugarcane crush in the 2020-21 crop year to 75.9M MT, -9.1M MT lower than our pre-revision estimate of 85.0M MT.


GLOBAL CURRENCY UPDATE  USD: 99.983 -0.42%  BRL: 5.5712 +2.20%  INR: 75.912 -0.44%  MXN: 23.942 +0.51%



Best Regards,

Jeff Dobrydney Senior Vice President Head of Futures & Options JSG Commodities This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. 203.853.3000 www.jsgcom.com

This report has been compiled for general informational purposes only. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, Jenkins Sugar Group, Inc. assumes no responsibility for errors and omissions.