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World sugar futures have yet again attempted to recover a bit this morning, but movement keeps stalling. The market is searching for something new. The Brazilian Real is not helping price, now approaching 5.70. March #11 is last 14 higher at 19.08 as of 10:00AM EST, trading from 18.92 up to 19.15 to this point. May has traded from 18.63 up to 18.82 and last 10 higher at 18.73. Fewer than 25,000 lots have traded between March and May to this point. On spread, the March/May has traded from 28 to 34 and last at 32 over. The May/July has traded from 19 to 25 over and last at 25 points premium.

SUGAR #11 OPEN INTEREST:  H2: 390,827 -2,341  K2: 139,352 +675  N2: 123,056 +703 TOTAL: 869,103 (lowest of 2021, lowest since 10/19)

SUGAR #11 OPTION WATCH ATM Vols. z 19.00 straddle 94-96 vol 24.00 -2.0% f 19.00 straddle 140-145 vol 24.30 -.70% h 19.00 straddle 216-220 vol 25.45 -.75% k 18.75 straddle 250-258 vol 24.25 -.30% n 18.50 straddle 275-285 vol 23.65 -.20% trade of note; paper buys 3,000 h 19.50/20.50 cs @ 30

MACRO BYTE Brazil’s government advanced its effort to change the constitutional spending cap and announced a monthly payment to truckers to offset increasing fuel costs. The moves show President Jair Bolsonaro, his political allies and even Economy Minister Paulo Guedes are willing to do whatever it takes to boost Bolsonaro’s reelection chances. The central bank will have an opportunity at next week’s monetary policy meeting to indicate whether it intends to tilt toward populism, as well. * The monthly diesel voucher would reportedly pay 400 reais each to 750,000 truckers, with an annual cost of roughly 4 billion reais. The aim is to avoid a potential truckers’ strike due to higher fuel costs.


In London, December is last $2.00 lower at $498.80, trading from $505.10 down to $407.20 to this point. On spread, the December/March is last $1.40 lower at $6.40 premium. The December/March white premium is now trading $79.75, down $2.00 on the day.


Cash-wise: Today’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report incorporates a period where March traded from 20.15 down to 18.82. We believe that the supplemental spec position has gone from a 205,877-lot long to a long position of around 185,375 lots. March open interest has gone from 415,463 lots to 399,265. May open interest has gone from 145,618 to 139,128. Total open interest has gone from 890,663 to 871,316.

In Brazil, ANP denied statements from Petrobras and Brasilcom on a possible fuel shortage in November. It said it would ensure there is sufficient supply. However, the Union of Retail Trade of Petroleum Derivatives in Alagoas (Sindicombustiveis-AL) said it was worried about a possible shortage given the recovery in demand. Elsewhere, truck drivers have threatened to go on strike from November 1st, asking for higher freight rates and Petrobras to change its pricing policy, among other things. However, local media reported that the government does not expect the threat to materialize. Petrobras sold the highest amount of gasoline in September since December 2017. It reported a 14.3% growth in gasoline demand in the third quarter (Q3), compared with Q2, due to expensive hydrous losing market share and a recovery in demand. Similarly, Q3 diesel sales reached the highest since 2015.

Conadesuca yesterday released its first estimate of production for the FY’22 crop at 6.116 million tonnes tel quel – 176,000 tonnes above the estimate recently published by the USDA. The plan for the crop indicates production of 3.708 million tonnes of estandar, 1.460 million tonnes of refinada and 776,609 tonnes with polarization of less than 99.2 degrees for export to the US. Based on this level of production, Mexico’s export availability, after meeting the current estimate of US needs, could be greater than 900,000 tonnes.

GLOBAL CURRENCY UPDATE  USD: 93.569 -0.03%  BRL: 5.6988 -0.56%  INR: 74.863 +0.01%  MXN: 20.223 +0.10%

Best Regards,

Jeff Dobrydney Senior Vice President Head of Futures & Options JSG Commodities This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. 203.853.3000

This report has been compiled for general informational purposes only. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, Jenkins Sugar Group, Inc. assumes no responsibility for errors and omissions

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