MORNING SUGAR REPORT

Monday April 22, 2024 

Register today for our Sugar Week Conference!

Monday, May 6 – CONVENE NYC

World sugar futures have attempted to remain in positive
territory for the third straight day. Spot May #11 is last 21
points higher at 19.98, trading from 19.88 up to 20.15 as of
8:45AM EST. July is last 28 higher at 19.77. More than
35,000 contracts have traded between May and July to this
point. On spread, the May/July has traded from 28 to 19 over
and last at 19 points premium. The July/October has traded
from three under to six under and last at four points discount.
SUGAR #11 OPEN INTEREST:
 K4: 97,043 -3,708
 N4: 315,026 +9,730
 V4: 170,451 +1,968
TOTAL: 828,235

OPTION WATCH:

June 20.00 Straddle 112 vol 28.34 +0.30%
July 20.00 Straddle 168 vol 27.14 +0.10%
October 20.00 Straddle 323 vol 25.22 unch.
March 19.75 Straddle 298 vol 21.96 unch.

MACRO BYTE

Bloomberg Economics’ model of
Brazilian inflation drivers shows
that both demand and supply
factors contributed to the easing in
March headline CPI.
Brazilian consumer price gains
slowed to 3.93% year over year
in March, a significant decline from
February’s 4.50%. Inflation
is now 72 basis points lower than it
was a year earlier. The CPI
is within the target band (3% +/- 1.5
percentage point) – though
not yet at its center.
The model indicates that easing
demand pressures shaved 19 bps
from year-over-year CPI, compared
to the February level.
Supply factors accounted for an 11-
bp decline. Both demand and
supply contributions to inflation
remain lower than their 20-
year averages.
We believe the bulk of disinflation
is past us. Year-over-year
CPI will likely oscillate between
3.5%-3.9% for the remainder of
2024, ending the year at 3.7%.
LONDON #5
In London, the August is last $9.20 higher at $572.70 trading from $568.30 to $576.00 to this
point. The August/October spread is last $0.20 lower at $18.00 premium. The August/July
premium is last at $137.00.
CFTC COMMITMENT OF TRADERS UPDATE – SPECS NOW SHORT
Friday’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report showed a net spec short position, excluding
the index length, of 23,076 lots. We had forecast a net short for the first time since November
2022, but the number exceeded expectations. The May #11 traded from 21.82 down to 19.28 in
the period, the lowest the market has seen nearby values since January 2023. The large specs are
a net short 10,552 lots after liquidating 9,804 longs and adding 27,609 shorts. The small specs
are net short 12,524 lots after liquidating 3,758 longs and adding 14,944 shorts. The net index
fund long is now 164,850, after adding 9,905 longs and covering 3,745 shorts. On the futuresonly
section, the commercials added 9,079 longs and covered a massive 52,844 shorts, to bring
their position to just 50,279 lots short, or just 2.554 million tonnes. On the combined futures and
options report, the commercials are now 28,666 lots short, adding 4,401 longs and covering
58,559 shorts.
GLOBAL FUNDAMENTALS
Egypt has bought another 250,000 tonnes of raw sugar for May-July arrival, according to
the country’s Supply Ministry. This brings total purchases for 2024 to ~450,000 tonnes.
The final number on the 2023/24 Thai sugar harvest finished at 8.77 million tonnes on 82.16
million tonnes of cane crushed. The production number finished about 1.0 million tonnes higher
than projected mid-late summer on El Nino related dry weather and farmer switch to cassava,
even though cane crushed was 12.49% lower than the previous year. The Thai government is
expected to implement measures to provide incentives to farmers to deliver more fresh cane to
millers next year, following this past year which saw less than 30% of unburned cane delivered.
In early December and for the third straight year, the Thai government approved a $229 million
measure to reward farmers who delivered fresh (unburned) cane over the 2022/23 season in an
effort to curb pollution from crop burning. There are around 300,000 sugar cane farmers in
Thailand.
In the Philippines, President Ferdinand Marcus Jr. has ordered the relaxation of rules on the
imports of agricultural products, including sugar. In an administrative order, Marcus asked the
Department of Agriculture to streamline administrative procedures and remove non-tariff
barriers.
CURRENCY UPDATE (YTD CHANGE):
 USD: 106.23 +4.84%
 BRL: 5.2047 -6.77%
 INR: 83.725 -0.08%
 MXN: 17.154 -1.07%
Best Regards,
Jeff Dobrydney
Senior Vice President
Head of Futures & Options
JSG Commodities
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
203.853.3000
www.jsgcom.com
This report has been compiled for general informational purposes only. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, Jenkins
Sugar Group, Inc. assumes no responsibility for errors and omissions.