MORNING SUGAR REPORT

Wednesday April 24, 2024 

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Monday, May 6 – CONVENE NYC

World sugar futures have slipped a bit lower this morning
in muted trading conditions. Spot May #11 is last eight points
lower at 19.83, trading from 19.91 up to 19.77 as of 6:15AM
EST. July is last seven lower at 19.59. Fewer than 10,000
contracts have traded between May and July to this point. On
spread, the May/July has traded from 22 to 25 over and last at
23 points premium. The July/October has traded from four
under to five under and last at four points discount.

SUGAR #11 OPEN INTEREST:

 K4: 84,232 -3,495
 N4: 329,511 +5,634
 V4: 174,059 +1,427
TOTAL: 836,717

OPTION WATCH:

June 19.50 straddle 97 vol 25.25 -.60%
July 19.50 straddle 154 vol 25.40 -.30%
October 19.75 straddle 237 vol 23.90 -.30%
March 19.75 straddle 294 vol 20.45 unchanged
No trades of note at this time.

MACRO BYTE

Traders in the US interest-rates
market have
started to put on wagers that the
Federal Reserve will refrain
from cutting borrowing costs this
year.
With the economy proving resilient
and progress on
inflation having stalled,
policymakers of late have been
signaling that they expect to keep
rates higher for longer.
That’s had ripple effects across
hedging instruments.

Ahead of the May 1 Fed decision,
traders have built positions in
options linked to the Secured
Overnight Financing
Rate — which closely tracks the
central bank’s benchmark —
targeting a scenario where officials
keep rates steady past
December’s policy meeting. Some
of the more aggressive bets have
also hedged the possibility that the
central bank will even
deliver another hike in 2024.

LONDON #5

In London, the August is last $0.60 higher at $573.80 trading from $575.60 to $572.40 to this
point. The August/October spread is last $2.20 higher at $21.40 premium. The August/July
premium is last at $142.00, up $5.00 on the week.

GLOBAL FUNDAMENTALS

According to a survey by S&P Global Insights, Brazil CS production is forecast to be off to a
robust start, with 689,300 tonnes produced in the first half April. If achieved this forecast would
be 27% higher than the first of April 2023. "Robust figures are anticipated for the first half of
April, with around 200 mills in operation," said S&P sugar analyst Bianca Guimaraes. UNICA
is anticipated to release the first production results for the new 2024/25 Center-South harvest
early tomorrow. S&P’s survey indicated 15.92 million tonnes of sugarcane was crushed in the
period, up 14.9% on the year. Ethanol production is seen at 931.3 million liters, up 18.8% on the
year.

According to the USDA attaché in Guangzhou ATO, China’s 2024/25 sugar production is
forecast at 10.4 million tonnes as the planted areas for both cane and beet are expected to rise.
Given sugar prices are expected to trend down, China’s 2024/25 sugar consumption estimate is
also forecast to increase to 15.7 million tonnes. The estimate for China’s MY 2023/24 sugar
production is revised downward to 9.9 million tonnes due to low sugar content in cane grown in
Guangxi. The full report can be viewed here.

GLOBAL WEATHER

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology says the Pacific Ocean has "cooled substantially" in
the past two weeks. This naturally occurring episode that began last June brought warmer waters
to the surface of the Pacific, adding extra heat to the atmosphere. But what happens next is
uncertain, say researchers. Scientists say that the months after the end of El Niño will give a
strong indication as to whether the recent high temperatures are due to accelerated climate change
or not.

CURRENCY UPDATE (YTD CHANGE):
 USD: 105.81 +4.42%
 BRL: 5.1262 -5.34%
 INR: 83.200 -0.13%
 MXN: 16.965 -0.01%

Best Regards,

Jeff Dobrydney
Senior Vice President
Head of Futures & Options
JSG Commodities
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
203.853.3000
www.jsgcom.com

This report has been compiled for general informational purposes only. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, Jenkins
Sugar Group, Inc. assumes no responsibility for errors and omissions.