MORNING SUGAR REPORT

Thursday April 25, 2024 

Register today for our Sugar Week Conference!

Monday, May 6 – CONVENE NYC

World sugar futures have fallen under pressure this morning
ahead of the release of the first production results out of the
new center-south of Brazil sugar harvest. Spot May #11 is last
46 points lower at 19.54, trading from 19.90 down to 19.51 as
of 7:15AM EST. July is last 47 lower at 19.30. Fewer than
10,000 contracts have traded between May and July to this
point. On spread, the May/July has traded from 22 to 25 over
and last at 23 points premium. The July/October has traded
from four under to seven under and last at seven points
discount.

SUGAR #11 OPEN INTEREST:
 K4: 65,476 -18,756
 N4: 335,688 +6,177
 V4: 176,274 +2,215

TOTAL: 827,078

OPTION WATCH:

June 19.50 straddle 89 vol 23.55 +.60%
July 19.50 straddle 147 vol 24.60 +.30%
Oct. 19.50 straddle 232 vol 23.95 -.15%
March 19.75 straddle 295 vol 21.00 -.20%

Trade of note:
500 n 22.00 calls trade 13

MACRO BYTE

Gold rose, ending a three-day drop ahead
of inflation data that will shape
expectations for US monetary policy and
the trajectory of the dollar.

Bullion traded above $2,300 an ounce, after
declining by more than 3% in the week’s
first three sessions as geopolitical
risks in the Middle East eased, hurting
demand for haven assets. The run of
declines had pushed the precious metal to
its lowest
close since April 4.

Traders are eyeing Friday’s release of the
personal consumption expenditures index
— the Federal Reserve’s preferred
measure of inflation — which is forecast to
show that price pressures remained
elevated in March. That would support the
case for a delay in rate cuts, a headwind for
gold as it doesn’t pay interest.

Gold has rallied strongly this year, hitting a
record earlier this month despite fading
expectations for easier policy
from the Fed. That shift has aided the US
currency and Treasury yields, which
traditionally act as drags on bullion. The
metal’s robust performance has been linked
to central-bank buying, surging interest in
some Asian markets including China, and
the possibility that investors may be
seeking protection against
sticky inflation.

LONDON #5

In London, the August is last $9.50 lower at $567.10 trading from $573.20 to $566.00 to this
point. The August/October spread is last $1.30 higher at $22.00 premium. The August/July
premium is last at $141.00, up $4.00 on the week.

GLOBAL FUNDAMENTALS

We anticipate the first update from the new Brazil CS harvest to be released this morning by
UNICA. According to Pecege Consultoria e Projetos, this year’s crush should reach 597.92
million metric tonnes processed, compared to 649.45 metric tonnes recorded in the previous
period, a reduction of 7.94%. According to the consultancy, the Center-South region will be
impacted by three factors: below-average rainfall, older sugarcane fields and a reduction in
the useful time for the growth of plants harvested at the end of the harvest.

GLOBAL WEATHER – EXTREME TEMPS WORRY THAI FARMERS

Warnings of extreme heat in Bangkok were issued for the sixth consecutive day, reflecting near record
temperatures across Thailand, where the heat-related death toll is approaching last year’s
tally. Bangkok’s heat index — a measure of how hot it feels like when humidity is taken into
account — was listed as above 52C(126F) and “very dangerous” on Thursday. The boiling
temperatures are hitting the Thai agriculture sector, with “worries about their sugar market,”
The Hightower Report said in a market commentary this week.

USMCA REGION – CHOCOLATE MILK TO REMAIN IN SCHOOLS, BUT…

The Biden administration will allow school cafeterias to continue serving students
chocolate and other flavored milk, but the drinks must soon meet new limits on added
sugar. The US Department of Agriculture published its final rule Wednesday intending to limit
children’s sugar consumption, opting against enacting its proposal last year to ban flavored milk
from all K-8 schools. The move is part of President Joe Biden’s larger push to promote healthy
school meals. Regulators rejected the hotly contested ban after public comments
overwhelmingly supported flavored milk, billing it as a palatable vehicle for getting nutrients to
children, the final rule said. The USDA had suggested the ban to address a 2021 study
identifying the drink as the leading source of added sugar in school meals “The industry stepped
up to the challenge and basically is working on making sure that the flavored milk will in fact
have limits on it by the fall 2025,” Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said on a Tuesday media
call, referring to sugar levels. “We want to make sure kids have access to milk—it’s an option,
it’s a choice, it’s one that many, many children choose. That way they get the vitamins and
minerals that they need.” Flavored milk can’t contain “more than 10 grams of added sugars per
8 fluid ounces” and drinks sold à la carte will have a 15-grams-per-12-ounce limit under the
rule, which takes effectbefore the 2025-2026 school year. Final Rule

CURRENCY UPDATE (YTD CHANGE):

 USD: 105.61 +4.42%
 BRL: 5.1480 -5.34%
 INR: 83.200 -0.13%
 MXN: 17.064 -0.01%

Best Regards,

Jeff Dobrydney
Senior Vice President
Head of Futures & Options
JSG Commodities
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
203.853.3000
www.jsgcom.com

This report has been compiled for general informational purposes only. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, Jenkins
Sugar Group, Inc. assumes no responsibility for errors and omissions.